An Early Hit?

After a fairly strong start to the season, I'm suddenly feeling a little confused with what to do with my team. My transfer plans have changed throughout the week, and appear to have evolved into a -4 which I'm currently weighing up whilst writing this.

After Pep Guardiola's post-game comments about rotating Erling Haaland, my mind had switched from rolling my transfer, to switching the Norwegian to Harry Kane. Spurs fixtures are nice looking forward, and Man City traditionally struggle against Palace. With Kane being more secure in his minutes than Haaland, and posting similar underlying stats in the last couple of game weeks, I expected him to be able to at least match the City number 9, if not return more points up until the world cup break. It's still a move I have in mind for future game weeks, especially as it will free up some funds, with Kane currently a cheaper option.

The injury to Callum Wilson however has changed my plans. Despite him only being out for a couple of weeks, his price point means I need to move him (albeit with a very heavy heart) on as the gameweek's come quick and fast. Luckily, I've not had to spend too much time on deciding on his replacement. Ivan Toney will come in. The Brentford front man has started the season well, with 2 goals and 2 assists in the three games this season.

Coupled with Toney's form, Brentford have some great fictures coming up with 5 of their next 6 fixtures against teams that finished in the bottom half of the league last season. He's also Brentfords talisman meaning minimal rotation risk.

Similarly priced to Wilson too, it means my team structure with three forwards remains as a nice differential.

So why am I considering a hit?

It's a combination of my original team tactics, fixtures, form, and funds freed up by the Wilson to Toney move. It seems almost a perfect storm. Or at least that's what I've convinced myself.

At the start of the season, I talked about wanting to use my £8m midfielder slot to attack fixtures, switching between the many great options there. The current incumbent is Phil Foden. He replaced Mason Mount in GW 2, and despite scoring, he's not really set the world alight, and as I mentioned before. I'm skeptical about the Palace fixture for Man City this week, and Foden played 65 minutes in their midweek friendly vs Barcelona.

Meanwhile, I'm disappointed to not have Harry Kane this week for Spur's trip to Forest. Despite a couple of impressive results for Forest, I still expect Spurs to have too much for them, som uch so, i was even tempted to take on Mo Salah's EO and captain Kane if I brought him in.

The Toney move frees up £0.2m currently.... which gives me £8.2m to replace Foden if I want to.... exactly enough for me to bring in Dejan Kulusevski.

Kulusevski has the type of fixture I want to attack, and was a player I enjoyed owning last season. Another option with a kind fixture is Luis Diaz, as I expect Liverpool to bounce back from Monday nights disappointment with a comfortable victory against Bournemouth.

Fodens underlying stats outperform both of them this season however, and despite the Palace fixture, They play 5 games at home in the next 7 gameweeks, and their away games are against Villa and Wolves, not exactly ones that you'd imagine have City fans quaking in their boots. So am I overthinking things?

If I take a hit, is Kulusevski or Diaz likely to outscore Foden by 4 to make it worth while, or do I play it safe? The Toney for Wilson move is happening so I'm not considering that as part of the hit.

It feels like the sort of decision that can have a big swing. If I stick with Foden, I can see him being dropped to the bench, and playing a 10 minute cameo (if so, that's a bonus and suggests fresh legs for Forest - the fixture I love for Kulusevski this weekend - in midweek) but it will sting if Kulusevski and/or Diaz haul.

I'll admit, I started writing this set on the Kulusevski move and a -4, but throughout writing, I'm swaying back to just bringing Toney in.

The other issue, is that if I take a hit, I'm likely to be bench in the SKLW tournament.... and that always feels like a knock to the ego, especially when I'm currently top of the Sweet 2FA league!