It's been a long International break, and whilst it felt needed at the time, I'm struggling to get back into the FPL frame of mind.
Having been away for GW30, the break has seemed even longer for me, and has added to a general malaise.
Since my last blog, I've felt in a little bit of a funk. A boys trip to Milan was excellent (would recommend taking a trip to the San Siro before it gets knocked down), but I was brought back down to earth a couple of days after with the news I may need surgery on my shoulder and therefore miss the whole upcoming cricket season, and I've since been ill this last week. Missing both England games during the break hasn't helped the disconnect either.
But we're back, and in the final throes of the season.
Looking at my FPL team, and I see a flags in key positions. Both goalkeepers, Ramsdale, and Dubravka (although Eddie Howe has since confirmed he has trained this week). The news from Howe has made it easier for me, I can start Ramsdale, and hope he's fit, if not, hopefully Dubravka will have played to take his place.
The key question this week though, has been what to do with Trent. He's hokey-cokeyed in and out of availability according to the insiders on twitter throughout the week, and therefore it's been playing on my mind whether to sell him or not.
The pro's of selling Trent, is that he is an easy way of getting to Joao Cancelo or Reece James, both of whom I want in my squad. In fact I could even do Trent and Coady to both Cancelo and James. But I will want Trent as soon as he's fit, and I'll need to find an extra £.6m to buy him back, and therefore it's likely to mean another points hit to get him back.
There's also the worry of rotation around Cancelo and James this week. With key Champions League games coming up for both teams, and games against opponents you would expect some rotation over the next few weeks.
With Jurgen Klopp mentioning that Trent is in full training today (Friday) it made me even more convinced to keep him.
But I still can't get away from the nagging feeling that Cancelo or James are going to return big scores this week.... And so I'm looking at my options.
Connor Coady is my most disposable defensive asset. I thank him for his heroics in GW29, and sent him on his way, to give me £5.6m to replace him. To get one of my favoured assets in, I need to take a hit.
First, I need to decide which one to go for, as this could decide my next move. Do I go with Cancelo. He's been more dependable this season in terms of appearances, and of course I wrote just a few weeks ago about how much I admire him as a player. But he's £6.9m. To get him, I either need to take an 8 point hit, or lose Saka. To get James, I can take out Emmanuel Dennis (something I've wanted to do, even since before he somehow inexplicably remained in my post wild-card squad).
Looking at the stats on the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area, to see whether Cancelo is worth the extra outlay, and on a "per appearance" basis. James is the clear winner. More Goals (0.3 per appearance vs 0), More assists (0.4 vs 0.2), Less goals conceded (0.5 vs 0.6), and more FPL points (6.4 vs 6.0).
The Underlying stats are just as good too. Again James leads the way in xG (0.2 vs 0.1 despite Cancelo having more attempts), chances created (1.9 vs 1.0) and big chances created (0.4 vs 0.2) - It should be noted though that both have an xA of 0.2 per appearance, and Cancelo leads the way in clean sheets (0.6 per appearance to 0.5 from James).
Reece James stats are no doubt boosted by the fact he takes some corners, but that just boosts his appeal. Hopefully he can swing one on to Thiago Silva's head tomorrow for the Shake n Bake Double up!
And so it's decided, James comes in for Coady, and that leaves me with 5.3m for a replacement of Dennis. With my squad lining up for big at the back the Dennis replacement is likely to be my third forward and always on my bench. Kane will play every week, Weghorst has the amount of fixtures that he can come in and out as and when he doubles/faces weak defences. Therefore I opt for Joe Gelhardt at Leeds for just £4.6m.
Jesse Marsh has been talking him up this week, and I feel he will play enough that when i need to call upon his services he will get me an appearance point or two, and I can focus on improving either Matt Doherty, or a midfielder next week with the remaining £0.7m in the bank.
As for my captaincy this week. All logic suggests Salah... Except for the fabled "never back the early game" rule. Because of this, Kane and Bukayo Saka are in my reckoning. I'll probably go with Mo, but that decision can wait till tomorrow.