Before I start I need to say thanks to Ted from @RotationFPL for helping me pull the historical FPL data together for this. Without his help, I wouldn't have been able to pull this together.
If you'd have read my Stuart Dallas piece a few weeks ago, it may come as no surprise, that I had planned to have Bukayo Saka in my FPL team at the start of the season. He's a player that has always impressed me, and his stats from last season were among the best in players at a similar price tag.
This feeling only strengthened with his fearless performances in the Euro's.... Until that penalty miss.
Suddenly, I was questioning the selection. How does anyone react to not only missing a penalty in the major tournament, but Saka, Jaydon Sancho and Marcus Rashford all have to bounce back from the vitriol of abuse the received in the aftermath.
Unfortunately, as an England supporter, we've had our share of missed penalties in major tournaments, and whilst it's been painful to go through the memories, it's given me a good indication of what we can expect from Saka, Sancho and Rashford this season.
In this article, I dive into the basic key stats for FPL(domestic league only), and look at the impact it has had on the unfortunate players who have missed in a penalty shooutout, or have become a "scapegoat" for being sent off in a game which has led to elimination.
Euro 2004
We start with Euro 2004. where England faced host nation Portugal in the quarter finals.
After getting off to the dream start, with Michael Owen scoring in the 3rd minute, a late Helder Postiga equliser forced extra- time. In the additional 30 minutes, Rui Costa put Portugal ahead, but Frank Lampard equalised with 5 minutes to go, and we went to dreaded penalties.
The Shoot-out saw David Beckham and Darius Vassell both miss crucial penalties, as Portugal Went through, and there was a clear impact on them the season after.
David Beckham (Real Madrid)
2003/4 Season: 30 Appearances, 15 Goal Involvements (3 Goals, 12 Assists)
2004/5 Season: 31 Appearances, 12 Goal Involvements (4 Goals, 8 Assists)
Darius Vassell (Aston Villa)
2003/4 Season: 32 Appearances, 10 Goal Involvements (9 Goals, 1 Assist). FPL Points - 100
2004/5 Season: 21 Appearances, 3 Goal Involvements (2 Goals, 1 Assist). FPL Points - 52.
World Cup 2006
We move on to the World cup in Germany in 2006, and again England faced Portugal in the quarter finals
After a goalless 120 minutes, we again went to penalties, but this time England were down to 10 men after Wayne Rooney had been sent off
The Shoot-out saw 3 players miss for England this time, regular club penalty takers Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard were joined by the unlikely taker Jamie Carragher in missing from the spot
(Side note: Carragher actually scored a penalty in the shoot-out, but the referee hadn't blown his whistle, and made him re-take it, and his second attempt was saved).
Wayne Rooney (Manchester United)
2005/6 Season: 36 Appearances, 25 Goal Involvements (16 Goals, 9 Assists). FPL Points - 182
2006/7 Season: 35 Appearances, 26 Goal Involvements (14 Goals, 12 Assists). FPL Points - 184
Jamie Carragher (Liverpool)
2005/6 Season: 36 Appearances, 1 Goal Involvement (0 Goals, 1 Assist). FPL Points - 157
2006/7 Season: 35 Appearances, 1 Goal Involvement1 (1 Goals, 0 Assists). FPL Points - 163.
Steven Gerrard (Liverpool)
2005/6 Season: 32 Appearances, 14 Goal Involvements (10 Goals, 4 Assists). FPL Points - 176
2006/7 Season: 36 Appearances, 9 Goal Involvements (7 Goals, 2 Assists). FPL Points - 180.
Frank Lampard (Chelsea)
2005/6 Season: 35 Appearances, 25 Goal Involvements (16 Goals, 9 Assists). FPL Points - 222
2006/7 Season: 37 Appearances, 22 Goal Involvements (11 Goals, 11 Assists). FPL Points - 202.
Euro 2012
Moving onto Euro 2012, and its another quarter final defeat on penalties, with Italy this time taking the spoils.
Again neither side could break each other down and we went into penalties with the scores at 0-0.
England captain Steven Gerrard and Wayne Rooney were successful from the spot, but Ashley Young struck the bar and Ashley Cole's effort was saved by Italy keeper Gianluigi Buffon.
Ashley Young (Manchester Utd)
2011/12 Season: 25 Appearances, 17 Goal Involvements (6 Goals, 11 Assists). FPL Points - 123
2012/13 Season: 19 Appearances, 5 Goal Involvements (0 Goals, 5 Assists). FPL Points - 58.
Ashley Cole (Chelsea)
2011/12 Season: 35 Appearances, 3 Goal Involvements (0 Goals, 3 Assists). FPL Points - 111
2011/12 Season: 37 Appearances, 3 Goal Involvements (1 Goals, 2 Assists). FPL Points - 121.
As you can see, Goal involvements usually drop the next season, with only Rooney increasing his output the season after, and he was the one person included that didn't miss a penalty in a shootout.
Both defenders on the list (Ashley Young was classified as a midfielder back then) were the only others from the list to score more points the next season, whilst the rest saw Goal involvements and FPL points drop the season after their spot kick mishaps.
This isn't just restricted to England players either. In Euro 2016, both Granit Xhaka and Mesut Ozil. Whilst Xhaka moved teams (and changed
leagues) in the summer of 2016, Ozil saw a similar decline at Arsenal as the England players above.
Mesut Ozil (Arsenal)
2015/16 Season: 35 Appearances, 25 Goal Involvements (6 Goals, 19 Assists). FPL Points - 200
2015/16 Season: 33 Appearances, 19 Goal Involvements (8 Goals, 11 Assists). FPL Points - 167.
Similarly in 2018, Christian Eriksen missed in Denmarks shootout defeat to Croatia, and again saw a decline in his league stats the next season.
Christian Eriksen (Spurs)
2017/18 Season: 37 Appearances, 21 Goal Involvements (11 Goals, 10 Assists). FPL Points - 199
2018/19 Season: 35 Appearances, 20 Goal Involvements (8 Goals, 12 Assists). FPL Points - 161.
So on average, players who miss in a shoot-out defeat at a major tournament see their FPL points drop by 14% from their total score the season before, with the only attacking players that have actually had a higher score the next season being proven FPL premium assets Steven Gerrard and Wayne Rooney.
This isn't to say that Saka, Rashford and Sancho can't have impressive season's next year, but I will be originally avoiding all three, and waiting to see how they bounce back.
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